Malawi Fresh Presidential Elections probable outcomes in two axioms and lemmas

Mfumusaka (www.mfumusaka.blogspot.com)

Introduction

·        ·        Voter behaviour by Malawians is an interesting and complex phenomenon governed by a train of factors, some influential and others determinantal, with others as important in moderating the final result. An attempt to summarize these processes can be appreciated in Matchaya (2010) in the African Journal of Political Science and International relations that focuses on Africa political events and available at http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/download?doi=10.1.1.902.7977&rep=rep1&type=pdf

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·        So, the fact that voters behaviour is influenced by many factors is something this analyst is aware of.

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·        ·        Thus, considering all these factors and the lag with which they change, the results in this year’s elections are likely to be a mirror image of 2014 and  2019 results but altered to the extent of the reconfiguration at present. 

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·        ·        As an example,  a combination of UDF and DPP obtained 15% from the centre, amounting to ~460,000 votes in 2019 ; But a combination of MCP and UTM obtained 22% in the South and 19% in the East amounting to Tonse getting ~470k votes  from East and South combined.

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·        ·        Whether the 2019 votes were all untrue owing to rigging is important and is accounted for in scenario three below. But in general if there was rigging in 2019, the key beneficiaries were not Tonse alliance, and so, it would mean their votes were understated, in which case, correcting for rigging puts them in even a stronger position.

·        ·       Tonse thus has gone into this 2020 FPE  with a 12 percent point lead against the UDF/DPP alliance of Muluzi and Mutharika (Mu-mu) alliance.

·        ·       Assuming that rigging is minimized, it is hence probable for Tonse alliance to win.

·        ·       The three scenarios below predict a Tonse win with at least 55% of the votes. The DPP will at best get 43%

Scenario 1: assume 2019 elections were not rigged

Fact: The registered voters in this election are the same as we had in 2019 generally

·        ·        Axiom 1: The voting pattern in 2020 can only change against the alliances if any of the alliances either by the manner of constitution or by the manner in which they have campaigned, is such that they have been outclassed.

·        o   Insight A1: The Alliances have energized their bases and no outright loser in their base may be noted a priori.

·        o   Lemma 1: Chilimas voters have followed him, UDF’s voters have followed him. However given everything, DPP did not campaign heavily with parts of them a bit unhappy and less visible. Mia on the Tonse side took the Tonse changes generously and campaigned very strongly.  

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·        ·        Assumption 1: Let us assume that the turn out rates from each region (North, Centre, South, and East) remain more or less the same as in 2019 (and there are no reasons to be pessimist in a highly contested election).

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·        ·        Prediction 1: Then the voting patterns are likely to remain as in 2019 and if they tilt, it will eb against Mu-mu alliance for the detail in Insight A1. Then

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·        o   the alliances  will amass votes equivalent to their 2019 sums  with slight variations.  Tonse in that case will win with close to just under 3 million votes while DPP will accumulate around 2.2 million votes at the very maximum.

Figure 1: Prediction 1:

Figure 2: Prediction 1 (shares)

In terms of shares, this will translate to Tonse (55%), Mu-mu (43%) and Kuwani will be under 2%

Scenario 2: Patterns follow 2019 but more voters energized

Fact: This election has been resoundingly more contested than the 2019 one for several reasons.

·        Axiom 2: More voters will show up in 2020 because of the sharpness of messages on campaign trail and real possibilities of a win on each side. .

o   Insight A2: The Alliances have energized their bases and the 800k registered voters who did not vote in 2019 at the Center may now vote; the 200k non-voters, etc would vote 

Table 1: Cast rates and possible new voters

	Center	North	South	East
Total	2920423	929974	1880200	1128973
Non-voters 2019	795011	200609	459412	298555
Cast	2125412	729365	1420788	830418
Cast Rates	0,727775	0,784285	0,755658	0,735552
New Voters From Non-voters	578589	157334	347158	219602

o   Insight A2.1:  The patterns of new voter influx in each region will mimic the cast rates of 2019.

o   Lemma2: In any case if the rates are to be scaled down, the ratios across the regions are likely to remain the same and if they were to change, hey would go to a more energized base which is the Centre, North, and East

·        Assumption 2: Let us assume that the split in votes of the new entrants (who were non-voters in 2019) from each region, to the Tonse alliance and Mu-mu alliance follows the same patterns with which each region split its votes to these parties in 2019, then we know that of the new votes the distribution will follow the pattern below:

Table 2: The share of votes from newly energized voters who did not vote in 2019

	Center	North	South	East
New voters from non-voters	578589	157334	347158	219602
%	83	78	22	19
Tonse	477800	122318	77548,56	42450,3
Mu-Mu	86913	31380,44	261155	169861
%	15	20	75	77

Thus, from Table 2, of the ~800k voters who did not vote in 2019 at the centre, about 600k may vote in 2019. Of those ~600k new voters at the centre, Tonse would get 83% (that’s what they got the previous time), which is about 500k, leaving 86k for Mu-mu. Similarly, in the South, of the 350k new voters, Mumu will get 75% (261,000) in line with what they got in 2019. In the East they will get 77% of the 219000 ie 170,000 while Tonse in each case will get 77000(south), and 42000(east) of the new voters.

·        Prediction 2: Given the above and Axiom A2., the total votes for each alliance will be as summarized in  Figure 3

o   The alliances will amass votes equivalent to their 2019 sums plus the additional energized voters from their respective regions split according to the known ratios of 2019.  Tonse in that case will win with close to just over 3.5 million votes while DPP will accumulate around 2.7 million votes at the very maximum.

Figure 3 : Scenario 2

In the final analysis, the ratios nationally will be as in Figure 4 ie Tonse alliance will win.

Figure 4: Scenario 2- overall

Scenario 3: Assume there was rigging in 2019

Assumption 3: In 2020 the chances of rigging are low owing to reconstituted MEC and other efforts on the side of the opposition, and hence counting may be closer to the truth.

·        If this is the case then it can only be at the disadvantage of Mu-Mu as they were in that case the beneficiary of 2019 rigging.

·        Lemma 3: Yes UDF suffered from rigging but as the rigger would have been DPP, a scenario of no rigging will simply make the votes that DPP took from UDF, legitimate, but won’t add to the sum of DPP plus UDF.

·        However, where rigging is checked, then DPP gives up what it stole from MCP and UTM, to the Tonse alliance.

·        Prediction 3: This increases Tonse alliance shares from 56% to further, to the extent that DPP had cheated them in 2019. This may mean that a 60% vs 39% for Tonse and Mumu alliances in that order is not a far-fetched probability.

Ø  In the end, the gap between Tonse and Mu-mu alliance will be at least 500k to 1,2 million votes with Tonse holding the upper hand

Conclusion

·        Under no- to moderate rigging, there is no feasible way for Mu-mu alliance to win these elections.

·        Chakwera and Chilima will be Malawi’s leaders (President and Vice President) from tomorrow evening .

feedback to : greenwellmatchaya@yahoo.com on behalf of Mfumusaka