📊 Critical Appraisal of the IPOR 2025 Pre-Election Survey: Coincidence or Constructed Optics?

 

By Mfumusaka (GMC)

The release of the IPOR 2025 pre-election survey, just days into campaign season, has generated both interest and concern. While opinion polling plays a legitimate role in democratic processes, the substance, structure, and timing of this particular survey raise important questions that merit closer scrutiny.

1. Too Many Convenient Coincidences

The timing of the findings seems almost choreographed to match recent political developments.

• Just days after a controversial choice of running mate by the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) triggered widespread ridicule, that same party is suddenly projected to lead nationally with 43%, and to command 37% in the North, a region where it has historically struggled outside unusual moments like 2009.
• The United Transformation Movement (UTM), which recently rejected an alliance with the DPP and remained independent, is shown collapsing to just 5%, despite having secured around 20% in 2019 and maintaining a visible national presence.
• Meanwhile, the governing party, the Malawi Congress Party (MCP) long dominant in the Central Region with support typically nearing 70%, is now reported at just 49% in its base, with no accompanying explanation or contextual data.

These abrupt and unexplained shifts feel less like public sentiment and more like political narrative.

2. Data Withheld, Distribution Omitted

Despite presenting itself as a methodologically sound survey, the report withholds essential breakdowns that are standard in credible polling.

• No full regional breakdown by candidate is shared.
• New entrants, smaller parties, and independents are either lumped into “others” or omitted altogether.
• The Southern Region, as used in this survey, appears to include Eastern Malawi traditionally a United Democratic Front (UDF) stronghold but with no clarity on how that subregional dynamic was disaggregated.

This weakens the analytical integrity of the findings.

3. Unexplained Departure from Voting History

Several figures do not align with Malawi’s known electoral patterns:

• The Central Region shows steep losses for a historically dominant party, with no clear beneficiary.
• The Southern Region, including Eastern constituencies and areas with active Yao/Ngoni political bases, is presented as overwhelmingly consolidated, contradicting recent fragmentation.
• In the North, a strong showing by a party previously weak there is offered without accompanying analysis.

Without historical trendlines or local dynamics, these claims appear implausible.

4. Narrative Engineering Through Omission

What is left out may be more telling than what is shown:

• Top-line gains are emphasized while other players are muted.
• Traditional strongholds are downplayed without evidence of erosion.
• Sampling, weighting, and undecided voter treatment are not disclosed.

This approach raises legitimate concern that the survey may be shaping perception rather than reflecting reality.

🧭 Conclusion

The IPOR 2025 pre-election survey falls short of expected standards for transparency and rigor in electoral polling. Until full data is released, including disaggregated regional results, methodology, and justifications for deviations from past trends, the findings should be treated as a politically timed release rather than definitive fact.

Posted by Mfumusaka