Which alliance will win the July elections in Malawi? - the reds

Joseph Labukeni Manase

"Now i see why people fail maths kkkkk...its because they dont revise past papers and examples :) ...plus they have no regard of theory and practice...

Think about it....

1. If the elections in 2019 were stolen from the red alliance partners, it is obvious that the numbers that were announced were biased downwards and so, the sum of the two in that alliance was more than the the revealed 2,800,000 (Chakwera plus Chilimas).

2 (a). It also is likely the case that the figures for the blues were below the 1,900 000 revealed . They cannot rig to their disadvantage- as a matter of common sense.....

2(b). The yellow partner may have scored either the 250,000 or slightly more. But here is the catch...

3. Even if the yellow was cheated, he was cheated by the blue because it is the blue which may have cheated. The implication is that the total votes for blue and yellow was likely the maximum 2,200 000 (just summing the revealed faulty ones and applying logic)

4. We rule out any proposition that the blues and yellows threw away their own votes because that would be to disadvantage themselves and that is not obtainable , logically.

5. Already, just by these simple principles, it means the blue +yellow alliance is starting worse off by 14 % points, ie by more than 1 million votes

6. But if the rigging meant that say 300k votes were taken away from the reds cap together, then the gap may even be 20%

6. So, which feasible way then can the blues +the yellows claim to have , to maintain the holdership of the reign?

Even if defections are to be accounted for ; we can apply theses logical principles:

a. At worst for the Reds, their number of defections to blues +yellows or to boycotts can be expected to be the same as the defections and boycotts from the blues to the reds.

b. If we infer from happenings in parties, its not hard to see that more problems may be in blues +yellows than in reds because reds have had more time to accept changes...but the blues are still in flux and today's decision has pleased yellows but perhaps assailed blue hard core support more also owing to the parameters around the age of the leaders in that camp..

Conclusion: Given the above, and even accounting for resourcefulness (they have infinite resources) of the blues +the yellows, a surprise will be if they lose by less than a gap of 5% points. The likely impartial outcome is likely to see the Blues +yellows coming second and trailing by at least 15%



This takes into account the fact that yellows may of course try to energize their base more.

of course reds must watch that they are not re-cheated, because he who counts votes may impose his will...and it may not coincide with yours unless you are part of the entire process

disclaimer: we are not affiliated to any political formation and our goal is to casually contribute to serious debates on development... inevitably, some analyses will be in areas of law, politics, economics etc
feedback: greenwellmatchaya@yahoo.com

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