The 2019 Malawi Presidential Nominations and the future they predict

Greenwell Matchaya, PhD

 

Three months before the 4th of February 2019 I had suggested at mfumusaka’s blog that one of the most crucial periods in this election cycle would be the 4-8th February and I repeated this just two weeks ago. The reason is to do with the opportunity that political parties have to bolster their images by an addition of one more faces to their presidential tickets. The addition can come in the form of just a running mate who can be from within the same party, or better still from another party with a different base. If the running mate choices are made meticulously with cognizance of the choosing party’s weaknesses, the running mate can make a huge difference.

Unfortunately, in the political space in Malawi, information on the principles of engagements in negotiations are not common knowledge and this is reflected in the many bad deals that Malawi as a nation gets, be it in the arena of mining or indeed politics. On the political arena we have previously seen how the UDF as a party has been abused by the DPP and indeed how the current UTM leader was ejected from the DPP despite any understandings they had prior to commencement of partnerships. It is against this background that I decided to develop an introductory article on principles of engagement applicable in alliance negotiations, to benefit political parties. This article is available at mfumusakas blog on http://mfumusaka.blogspot.com/…/principles-of-engagement-fo…

Fast forward, as of today the 8th of February 2019, the crucial week has come and gone, and political parties tried to reorganize themselves through alliances and running mate positions. As we know, alliances essentially failed and political parties, except the UDF resolved to pick running mates from their own political parties. The objective of this article is not to debate why alliances failed (although it is obviously partly due to poor negotiation skills), but rather to use the party choices of running mates and predict the future implications in respect of 21 May presidential elections. I will provide a few assumptions where applicable but a very detailed analysis of the assumptions and computations of outcomes will not be provided for brevity. Below, I consider each of 5 main parties and end with a summary of implications.

Parties and which areas they can attract

UDF

Of all the parties, the UDF provided a surprising choice for a running mate position not only because they took an outsider, but because for the first time in the history of the UDF they settled for a man from the Northern region as a second in command. The only significant party to have done the same was the MCP. This is not only commendable, but it also showed that the UDF is willing to change in the wake of imminent annihilation. UDF settled for Mr Mwenifumbo, a person who just a few months before, fought the AFORD president bitterly in pursuit of the AFORD presidency.

The implication of this choice depends on whether the UDF have the money to run a serious campaign, both in the north and the Eastern region in particular. The UDF has been on the decline since Bingu took away power from the UDF and formed his own DPP party in 2004. The predictions available however are that despite anything to the contrary , the UDF has the potential to get a good number of votes in the north owing to this choice. The current estimates are that the UDF can get over 50% of its 2014 Eastern votes and add a good amount (eg 50,000) from the north if they campaign in the north. UDF’s choice of a running mate is one where 1+1 =2 i.e. somewhat value adding.

PP

The PP president elected to settle for Dr J Janna after their attempt to enter negotiations with UTM failed owing allegedly to UTM negotiators disrespecting agreements they signed with PP. This reason was echoed by Hon Cassim Chilumpha and corroborated by UTM insiders sympathetic to PP. The running mate for PP is not well known politically, and is not one to whom anyone can attribute a political base. The strength of PP is hence with the presidential candidate Joyce Banda who would ride on the fact that she was recently a president. Indeed while others may be bound to dismiss PP as a spent force owing to the self-exile that JB went through as some would say, JB appeals to a certain group of voters and they are not going to abandon her that easily.

Having said that, the best for PP was to be in partnership with another stronger party if they were to maintain the 1million votes they had in 2014. As it stands now, the PP base in the south is too contested and the northern region is very fluid, with all parties heavily present and none may claim outright monopoly. The entry and exit from the alliance with UTM did also not help much and if anything it dented their credibility almost in the same way it undermined the credibility of UTM. PP therefore is likely to see a shrink in its 2014 votes.

UTM

UTM is run by a leader potentially very interesting as the others we consider below. He talks tough and if given the correct information , he can deliver it effectively . Nevertheless, one is not sure whether he enjoys good counsel as we are sometimes asked to believe. I say this in good faith and seeing that at times he has not taken advantage of clear opportunities .

After a series of permutations finally UTM settled for Dr Michael Usi, one of Malawi’s interesting comedians. Dr Usi usually appears in various roles as a comedian with various intentions. Usi too just as his P, talks tough and is well educated. Before this choice rumours were everywhere that the UTM was attempting to cobble an alliance with the UDF, the AFORD as well as the PP. In fact, the initial letter that Dr Chilima appears to have written as a response to his ouster from DPP signalled a dream for a grand alliance led by him, against DPP. As we now know, this never happened and the alliance with PP lasted just a number of hours before collapsing owing to an alleged UTM breach of contractual terms.

The implications are that two untested presidential candidates Dr Chilima and Dr Usi are leading UTM presidential ticket. Granted, there are people in urban areas that are excited by UTM, but to the extent that our urban centres represent a minute fraction of our general population, and the sceptical rural masses require ample time to convince, the race is harder for UTM. Usi may come with his odya zache alibe mulandu group but frankly speaking, those people may never number more than 70,000 nationwide and even if they were, it would be naïve to assume that he can recover 100% of them. Even if he did, winning elections needs much more. Granted, some educated people and some youth may be elated by the pair owing to being youthful, but I put it that equally there may be loads of scepticism owing to such youth. In the end, there is no basis for any systematic flow of youth to the UTM. The coming in of Atupele of UDF has also weakened that argument just in the same way the emergence of youthful lieutenants in DPP and MCP camps has. It would appear after the alliances failed, there was no exit strategy for the UTM leader in respect of choice of the running mate. Had he chosen an outsider, Usi would likely have exited too.

We can hence safely say that the biggest chance for UTM to be assured of position three would have been found in their union with UDF or PP and the number 2 position would have been granted had they united with both PP and UDF. Nevertheless, they did not and hence the predictions herein are incontrovertible and they point to an undesirable state of affairs for them in respect of number 1. They will finish number 3.

DPP

We must never underestimate incumbency. Incumbency comes with money, influence, infinite tangible and intangible resources and honour. The reason JB managed to get 1 million votes in 2014 and why she will not surpass 600,000 votes in 2019 is partly due to gain and loss of incumbency. The DPP is in power and to make matters simpler for them, the elections calendar allowed them to present after every other major party had presented theirs. This may look minor but there is no better time to play chess than when your opponent has plaid because you can intelligently guess his next moves. The biggest threat to opposition parties was the possibility of DPP to whip both UDF and PP into an alliance with them by blackmail or positive incentive.

Of course, as we now know, DPP settled for some unknown Hon Chimulilenji. Contrary to what people may argue, in my view the DPP has tried something that if it works may serve their interests namely that in the event of Peter’s retirement, Chimulirenji may still keep the party gurus with him for support. The many things that people may view as weaknesses are the very reasons why DPP chose Chimulireni. Another obvious one is that the VP vacancy was created by ousting Dr Chilima from Ntcheu and so it is a good idea to avoid a fallout with that base to fill it with another of their own, Chilima then may fail to appeal to that base. Of course some may argue that Chimulirenji appears not comparable to chilima in terms of other factors but the truth is that under such circumstances, what matters to the voters is nothing more than the fact that a person among them has risen to power. Thus, Chilima's limit in Ntcheu is 60%, as the other 40% will go to other parties including MCP. Ntcheu is heterogenous .

With good campaigning, (which DPP can stage) they can halt UTM in that base, with this Chimulirenji by touting him as a successor to Peter, even if he may not be. If DPP has blundered on this choice, the comparison should not be anything but a case of an alliance with UDF or another bigger party. Compared to many other candidates whose names were in the news and are DPP, Chimulirnji is the better choice. Nationally though, Chimulirenji will not appeal.

However, being a best choice for the purposes of securing the private interest of DPP is not the same as being best in votes pulling for purposes of an election as that of May 21 2019. Politics in Malawi is unfortunately partly regional, policy based and tribal. The emergency of UDF, their breakaway faction-the UTM, and PP, in many ways disadvantages DPP when compared not to those parties, but to MCP. Granted, the other parties will also need to be checked by MCP and dpp , but the greater damage is to DPP. In the end , it is very hard even if you bring in incumbency, and resources to be confident that DPP is stronger because of this. DPP has been weakened by the developments thus far.

MCP

The MCP has finished second in elections since 1994. Looking at this election cycle one sees that the MCP too has not been able to cobble up an alliance with any of the parties and one is not sure how far those efforts went. MCP was the only party whose probability of a win would have reached 100% had they made an alliance with any of the three parties, be it UDF or PP or UTM owing to the fact that MCP and DPP are not significantly different in size thus far.

Interestingly, while an alliance wasn’t possible, MCP identified its running mate long ago and revealed him last year in contrast to the rest whose running mates were only known during the nomination ceremonies. Regardless of what others may think, this counts in their favour and can be considered a sign of organization and maturity. The running mate for MCP ranks highest among the rest of the running mates objectively and politically viewed. A running mate should have the possibility of bringing to the party more than him or herself because a party needs votes, influence and ideas. On this basis it is hard to dispute that Mia in MCP passes this test. Mia passes it by far.

Of course, the absence of alliances with either UDF, PP, or UTM is not a great occurrence, but the fact that these parties are running alone too can only be good news for MCP. Nevertheless, the MCP must work harder than they have done thus far to avoid a contrary outcome. While they have stronger bases, their weakness can be resources. This is because while MCP has been in opposition for quarter of a century, DPP is in government now and will use government resources to campaign and achieve milestones. Again, UTM president is in government and uses state resources to travel to rallies etc, UDF president is in government and is entitled to public resources while PP president was in government just 4 years ago and has strong connections in the government she left. Thus, MCP is the marginalized one of the 5, and must work harder than the rest and that is their challenge.

So what?

The assumptions and analyses behind some of these are intricate and will not be presented here but one thing is sure, the race is between MCP and DPP and of course, UDF, UTM and PP will play a significant moderating role. Between UDF, UTM and PP, it is not easy to tell which one will get more votes and so claim position 3 ( especially between UDF and UTM (if UDF campaigns) but one of them will be number 3 and the other, 4.

Disclaimer: The views herein are those of the author and have nothing to do with any other person, or third party (natural or juristic) with whom the author may have contacts with in one way or another. The intended purpose is to feed the public with intellectual thought indiscriminately while generating useful debates.

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