Timing for Meaningful Alliance formation

Greenwell Matchaya, PhD

In the previous article titled  Principles of Engagement for a Successful Alliance Formation available both on nyasatimes and mfumusaka’s blog (http://mfumusaka.blogspot.com/2018/11/principles-of-engagement-for-successful.html ) we tackled the issue of requirements for healthy discussions leading to alliances and covered issues of objectivity, importance of facts, good faith, lawfulness, consensus, certainty, roles and responsibilities, formalities inter alia.  This article seeks to take it from the previous discussion and tackle few issues on why an alliance may be important and under what circumstances may it be meaningful(less). This is important to ensure alliances are not merely ceremonial, but serve a noble purpose.

As with the previous one, this article is not meant to discourage or encourage any political party anywhere to go into, or withdraw from any potential political formation, alliance, party or grouping, rather, it seeks to contribute to that ideal where alliances can form if need be, and in a manner that brings in material changes to parties’ fortunes. In so doing we hope to contribute to the much needed vibrancy of democracy in Malawi. Our focus is on two parameters namely timing and usefulness.

Timing

Ordinarily electoral alliances formation can take place any time including “long before” any election, “soon before” any election, “soon or longer” after the election depending on what the circumstances may be. Nevertheless, the ability of such alliances to lead to a presidential outcome (if this is a goal) may dictate the timing depending on the nature of the electoral system in place.

Where President is elected by popular vote

In an electoral system where a president is elected by popular vote for example, like that of Malawi and other countries in the Africa, it makes sense for alliances to take place before the elections. This is because the president is going to be chosen the moment the votes are cast by the populace and not later. Parties thus have the ability in theory to help get the presidency on their side, and with it, control government.

Where the president is elected by parliament

On the other hand, in electoral systems in which the president is elected by parliament after the general elections, alliances can take place even after elections because at that point, agreeing parties can regroup and agree to elect a president among themselves and share power. These systems are evident in South Africa as well as the UK, among others. In this system a party that does not win decisively can lose the presidency to another, with a stronger alliance.

Implication for parties in Malawi

The implication is that for parties in Malawi, the best times to cobble alliances are between now and first week of February when nominations conclude. Within this period parties can effectively build up alliances that can be effective and if they win, each party would feel inseparable from the win.  An alliance formed this way contributes to elections outcome and is likely to be credible and likely to survive longer.

Alliances that form only after elections are, not surprisingly, characterised by a boss-pupil relationship where the party that won bosses over the late comer in power sharing. This is understandable because the late comer is taken less seriously but as an opportunist who tries to reap where it didn’t sow in the first place. Such a partner holds a weaker position and usually only one or a few individuals from such a party benefit. This would be different from an alliance put together prior to the elections as terms would have been agreed a priori and changing them would make the governing party unpopular and undermine its ability for future alliances with any others.

Implications elsewhere

For systems where the president is elected at the parliament’s first setting or any other, sitting, alliances can be formed even immediately upon knowing the shares of legislators that each party has obtained. Parties can form alliances and take the government and presidency if their alliances are largest. But this does not apply in Malawi and so, any attempt to wait until a vote means the weaker parties in those alliances will gain less that they would, had they joined earlier and there is no guarantee that the winning party will need an alliance after a win anyway. There are examples from recent history to support this point in Malawi.

Usefulness

Usefulness relates to whether the alliance and the challenges that may come with having to work with new colleagues bring, can be worthwhile.  Except for small parties whose genuine goal may not be to win but to help share power with the winner, some parties’ goals are to win. For the latter, a loss is not satisfactory. For the former, although a loss of their alliance may be unsatisfactory, the fact that they were going to be far from power anyway implies that the impact of a loss may be low. In any case, we assume that every party’s goal is triumph.

Likelihood of a win is key

To win therefore, an alliance has to be formed in such a way that there is a realistic chance that the alliance can really win. Winning should not only be a mere possibility, it must be probable. The test for probability of a win should be both objective and subjective. It should be objective in that past and current performance should be used as a guide for potential triumph. Subjectively, the circumstances and characteristics of the specific parties at present should be considered to gauge their current and potential elections triumph. 

Political parties should realistically look at past voting behaviour, current trends in popularity of parties, candidates, and many factors that determine a win and gauge which two parties are more likely to win and cobble alliances around those two parties or around the one that is more likely to govern better of those two.

Two Warnings:

1. Don’t let this (January- February 8) period lapse – and expect that you get into a useful alliance after elections- you will be a weaker partner.

2. Don’t get involved in an alliance that is likely to lose from its day of formation. Be real, coalesce around those who can really win and contribute to advancement of our country.

Disclaimer: The views herein are those of the author and have nothing to do with any other person, or third party with whom the author may have contacts with in one way or another. The intended purpose is to feed the public with intellectual thought indiscriminately for democracy consolidation.

Leave any feedback here or send to: greenwellmatchaya@yahoo.com ; www.mfumusaka.blogspot.com