Why the opposition in Malawi must unite
By Chisambi Masamba
In 2014 an opportunity for significant change was lost merely because some people did not listen to counsel coming from serious analyses that consistently showed that PP was going to just win in the north and by less than 55 % and come second class in the east and falter everywhere ! The implication of this was that no matter what our wishes would have been , the number one poison was going to be either for dpp or Mcp ... since dpp had left a seriously notorious legacy of mismanagement, brutality in the 2011 20 july mass killings , nepotism against all other tribes and pilferage , the best choice was Mcp. The latter had the cleanest of all the leaders contesting anyway !
What happened was lamentable , pp could not join forces with Mcp and as such, ridding on incumbency , monkey tricks with election results, judicial system capture inter alia , dpp stole the election and was pronounced the winner midnight just two hours before 12 midnight on the 8th day after voting leaving no room for any appeals of the rogue high court decision that literally usurped the power of people to choose a leader within a democratic process , under the explanation that the court had no power to order an extension of the 8 day period . It was a travesty and gross miscarriage of justice ...
Had the Mcp won too decisively alongside udf and pp, against dpp, these massive corruption instances would have been avoided .. power would have been shared by Mcp in the lead, pp and udf ... the fightings over spoils in dpp and their resultant by products including the recent political changes would not have chanced . We lost an opportunity because of arrogance
Fast forward 2019..., we are confronted with a similar potentially precarious trap... dpp has split in two , pp is active but unsure which side to join, udf is angling for dpp runningmate , utm is looking for presidency and Mcp is in there leading ...
I have good and bad news ... the good news is that dpp will be weaker if UTM does not return to DPP in 2019 (ohh yes I must make that assumption ... we don’t rule anything out in politics. Strategists are on record saying both atupele and utm leaders are angling for dpp leadership but re following different routes. Atupele is saying I can galvanize the south with you mr apm, while skc is saying if you don’t take me I can soil your day) ...
The news is ...in that scenario the chances of dpp are slim but because no matter what we desire the only major contenders will be Mcp and dpp, a disaggregated opposition fractures its chances of winning ....Mcp can still win but MEC would have to be monitored every second to avoid problems ...
If Atupele or someone else partners dpp , the problem ups a bit and if the remaining opposition does not coalesce then it’s a tricky situation ...
Please note these immutable facts today again :
1. As it stands Mcp can win the 2019 elections ... its chances are fairer than any of the parties dpp utm udf and pp even if udf was to partner dpp
2. Dpp is the runner up to Mcp. Dpp May look ransacked and yes it is ransacked but you would be a fool to expect that they won’t reorganize and fight back . If they did , it would take them only one month to remobilize their bases in the south and could still energize their bases outside including the northern region. Remember despite killing 20 people of tumbuka origin in 2011, and speaking straight for quota and anti northern rhetoric , they came number 2 in the north after jb . There are many levers one uses to win a people and the north is non homogenous .
3. Utm , has a seemingly tough talking brother of ours from another mother with some marketing and private sector experience ... he will be able to convince some professionals and some few people in villages but his effect will be such that it will make him number 3 . Even if he was to up the rhetoric of nepotism , corruption , jobs, etc combined with his seeming charm , the limits for him are capped at PPs 2014 levels . I know his strategists would be adamant , one because they need a job of strategizing and two because they play poker , but those are immutable facts
4 . if pp runs or udf runs they will each compete for number 4 position but if pp and udf merge then utm will be number 4 . If utm takes pp with it , it will still be number 3 because the pp has been and will be scrambled over by all the 4 other parties ...as their base was always in flux ..
So, the question you must ask yourself if you are pp or utm today is as simple as this ... what will you want to be remembered for?
A. As that person who prevented real change from chancing ?
B. Or that who helped usher change at a time of great moral and managerial decadence ?
The choice is yours . “
These guest writers will be featuring at
Www.mfumusaka.blogspot.com
There views therein are not of the host but rather of the contributors !
In 2014 an opportunity for significant change was lost merely because some people did not listen to counsel coming from serious analyses that consistently showed that PP was going to just win in the north and by less than 55 % and come second class in the east and falter everywhere ! The implication of this was that no matter what our wishes would have been , the number one poison was going to be either for dpp or Mcp ... since dpp had left a seriously notorious legacy of mismanagement, brutality in the 2011 20 july mass killings , nepotism against all other tribes and pilferage , the best choice was Mcp. The latter had the cleanest of all the leaders contesting anyway !
What happened was lamentable , pp could not join forces with Mcp and as such, ridding on incumbency , monkey tricks with election results, judicial system capture inter alia , dpp stole the election and was pronounced the winner midnight just two hours before 12 midnight on the 8th day after voting leaving no room for any appeals of the rogue high court decision that literally usurped the power of people to choose a leader within a democratic process , under the explanation that the court had no power to order an extension of the 8 day period . It was a travesty and gross miscarriage of justice ...
Had the Mcp won too decisively alongside udf and pp, against dpp, these massive corruption instances would have been avoided .. power would have been shared by Mcp in the lead, pp and udf ... the fightings over spoils in dpp and their resultant by products including the recent political changes would not have chanced . We lost an opportunity because of arrogance
Fast forward 2019..., we are confronted with a similar potentially precarious trap... dpp has split in two , pp is active but unsure which side to join, udf is angling for dpp runningmate , utm is looking for presidency and Mcp is in there leading ...
I have good and bad news ... the good news is that dpp will be weaker if UTM does not return to DPP in 2019 (ohh yes I must make that assumption ... we don’t rule anything out in politics. Strategists are on record saying both atupele and utm leaders are angling for dpp leadership but re following different routes. Atupele is saying I can galvanize the south with you mr apm, while skc is saying if you don’t take me I can soil your day) ...
The news is ...in that scenario the chances of dpp are slim but because no matter what we desire the only major contenders will be Mcp and dpp, a disaggregated opposition fractures its chances of winning ....Mcp can still win but MEC would have to be monitored every second to avoid problems ...
If Atupele or someone else partners dpp , the problem ups a bit and if the remaining opposition does not coalesce then it’s a tricky situation ...
Please note these immutable facts today again :
1. As it stands Mcp can win the 2019 elections ... its chances are fairer than any of the parties dpp utm udf and pp even if udf was to partner dpp
2. Dpp is the runner up to Mcp. Dpp May look ransacked and yes it is ransacked but you would be a fool to expect that they won’t reorganize and fight back . If they did , it would take them only one month to remobilize their bases in the south and could still energize their bases outside including the northern region. Remember despite killing 20 people of tumbuka origin in 2011, and speaking straight for quota and anti northern rhetoric , they came number 2 in the north after jb . There are many levers one uses to win a people and the north is non homogenous .
3. Utm , has a seemingly tough talking brother of ours from another mother with some marketing and private sector experience ... he will be able to convince some professionals and some few people in villages but his effect will be such that it will make him number 3 . Even if he was to up the rhetoric of nepotism , corruption , jobs, etc combined with his seeming charm , the limits for him are capped at PPs 2014 levels . I know his strategists would be adamant , one because they need a job of strategizing and two because they play poker , but those are immutable facts
4 . if pp runs or udf runs they will each compete for number 4 position but if pp and udf merge then utm will be number 4 . If utm takes pp with it , it will still be number 3 because the pp has been and will be scrambled over by all the 4 other parties ...as their base was always in flux ..
So, the question you must ask yourself if you are pp or utm today is as simple as this ... what will you want to be remembered for?
A. As that person who prevented real change from chancing ?
B. Or that who helped usher change at a time of great moral and managerial decadence ?
The choice is yours . “
These guest writers will be featuring at
Www.mfumusaka.blogspot.com
There views therein are not of the host but rather of the contributors !
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