It is now more likely that MCP will win in 2019 if MCP steps up efforts

Guest writer

Ok now you have digested ... but in case you were not at the masintha rally, note the following:

1. The meeting had a good following almost reminded me of Atupeles rally at the same venue at his peak when he run on the message of change in 2014.

2. 98% of the prominent politicians who led the movement rally yesterday were dpp breakaways . Except for very few one or two faces who themselves are trying to find a home

3. There was no prominent person from Mcp , no prominent persons from udf or pp who were surprises.

4. The messages of what utm will Do were put in a simplified way which is good. The simplicity also made it easy to see that except for the 1 million job numbers to be created in one year, none of what they said is new. In fact all of them are in dpp, udf and Mcp manifestos, with the latter having almost everything and more .

4. As usual it is difficult in one rally to spell out the hows . Not surprisingly , the how to do it is unknown for utm or at least not yet elaborated. Yes taking away stolen loot from dpp is one of them to raise money as they said, but that is trite in all party manifestos... all parties aspire to curb theft and recover stolen loot .

5. It was clear that the utm thinks to end corruption is to promulgate good Laws and to develop the country is to come up with good policies ... good , but I guess later they will start following another path .. as the Mcp guys often say, it’s a combination of policy , institutions and enforcement ... right now the country has great deal of laws that can punish corrupt people etc and that can lead to economic growth ... the failure is due to enforcement to a great deal although a residual may be ascribed to weak policies and laws ..

But at least it is good that utm has its own take on this . Then people will draw parallels with what I have noted as a stand for Mcp ie both strengthened Laws , institutions and policies and enforcement

6. I noted that brother skc was charged and was brave in shouting at dpp and their corrupt tendencies... he was also ready to announce that to win one has to be brave and fight even if it means to have to die . I agree. The dpp will not surrender without a fight. The country must be taken from them. This mantra should resonate in Mcp too and from what I see Mcp is way ahead in pursuit of this.

7. On fb , most dpp moderates who in 2014 did not vote for today’s opposition anyway, have rallied for the utm in commentary ... this is a clear sign of a divided dpp

8. From mr kambalus own admission it would appear they did a good background work since 2016 to have this meeting

9. The challenge or apparent contradiction there at the rally , was those who organized his rally ie the founders .... it was surprising to hear them speak of fighting corruption ..I remember APM muttering that those uk founding utm leaders are themselves too corrupt according to dpp standards that they had to be ejected!. it sounded a bit as the rhino poachers advising that they must donate anti poaching devices to park officials - parody

In sum..on the basis of the rally, one would conclude that

1. Dpp has been directly hit by skc gallant exit ! Which is good for Mcp and it ups the odds of Mcp winning

2. Because there are often people who first get carried away and regain sanity later, in 5 months there will be a change for the better on both dpp and Mcp sides as each party tries to regain more.

3. As utm pounces in this mix, it is imperative that Mcp must fight and fight ... fight gallantly on the shores, the river banks, in air, on land , in the air , on water, on the streets, and they must never surrender !

The utm is  both a threat and help for Mcp match to state house- mcp must just capitalize on this ! They must just make this a reality by fighting with every cudgel and trick and resources known or unknown .

As analysts we are watching

We see that both utm and Mcp want to remove dpp, but the issue of how is critical... but MCP wins this election