📊 Critical Appraisal of the IPOR 2025 Pre-Election Survey: Coincidence or Constructed Optics?
By Mfumusaka (GMC) The release of the IPOR 2025 pre-election survey , just days into campaign season, has generated both interest and concern. While opinion polling plays a legitimate role in democratic processes, the substance, structure, and timing of this particular survey raise important questions that merit closer scrutiny. 1. Too Many Convenient Coincidences The timing of the findings seems almost choreographed to match recent political developments. Just days after a controversial choice of running mate by the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) triggered widespread ridicule, that same party is suddenly projected to lead nationally with 43% , and to command 37% in the North , a region where it has historically struggled outside unusual moments like 2009. The United Transformation Movement (UTM) , which recently rejected an alliance with the DPP and remained independent, is shown collapsing to just 5% , despite having sec...
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