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📊 Critical Appraisal of the IPOR 2025 Pre-Election Survey: Coincidence or Constructed Optics?

  By Mfumusaka  The release of the  IPOR 2025 pre-election survey , just days into campaign season, has generated both interest and concern. While opinion polling plays a legitimate role in democratic processes, the  substance, structure, and timing  of this particular survey raise important questions that merit closer scrutiny. 1. Too Many Convenient Coincidences The timing of the findings seems almost choreographed to match recent political developments. Just days after a controversial choice of running mate by the  Democratic Progressive Party (DPP)  triggered widespread ridicule, that same party is suddenly projected to  lead nationally with 43% , and to command  37% in the North , a region where it has historically struggled outside unusual moments like 2009. The  United Transformation Movement (UTM) , which recently rejected an alliance with the DPP and remained independent, is shown  collapsing to just 5% , despite having sec...
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Delegates’ voting behaviour: Elusive, but just for Now

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    Greenwell Matchaya, PhD One of the most frustrating things for any investor is being unable to know the possible returns of his/her investment with some level of certainty. Similarly, for a political investor/politician it can be frustrating to devout so much effort in a competition where the voter behaviour is unknown, because doing so would easily lead to wastage of resources or in other words, would limit gains per dollar invested. While voter behaviour is complex and often elusive, when the same or similar voters vote for candidates over a number of times, it is easier to demystify their behaviour. Using known techniques of analysis often taught in elementary statistics, econometrics and mathematics classes, it is possible to study the patterns and derive generalizations or even “theorems” around such behaviour. With advances in machine learning and AI in general, and a good understanding of physiology, sociology, one can torture data or even create some and pr...
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Malawi’s Historic Defamation Ruling: A Test of Responsibility

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