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Delegates’ voting behaviour: Elusive, but just for Now

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    Greenwell Matchaya, PhD One of the most frustrating things for any investor is being unable to know the possible returns of his/her investment with some level of certainty. Similarly, for a political investor/politician it can be frustrating to devout so much effort in a competition where the voter behaviour is unknown, because doing so would easily lead to wastage of resources or in other words, would limit gains per dollar invested. While voter behaviour is complex and often elusive, when the same or similar voters vote for candidates over a number of times, it is easier to demystify their behaviour. Using known techniques of analysis often taught in elementary statistics, econometrics and mathematics classes, it is possible to study the patterns and derive generalizations or even “theorems” around such behaviour. With advances in machine learning and AI in general, and a good understanding of physiology, sociology, one can torture data or even create some and pr...
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Malawi Fresh Presidential Elections probable outcomes in two axioms and lemmas

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Mfumusaka (www.mfumusaka.blogspot.com) Introduction ·         ·          Voter behaviour by Malawians is an interesting and complex phenomenon governed by a train of factors, some influential and others determinantal, with others as important in moderating the final result. An attempt to summarize these processes can be appreciated in Matchaya (2010) in the African Journal of Political Science and International relations that focuses on Africa political events and available at  http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/download?doi=10.1.1.902.7977&rep=rep1&type=pdf ·           ·         So, the fact that voters behaviour is influenced by many factors is something this analyst is aware of. ·           ·         ·        ...
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