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📊 Critical Appraisal of the IPOR 2025 Pre-Election Survey: Coincidence or Constructed Optics?

  By Mfumusaka  The release of the  IPOR 2025 pre-election survey , just days into campaign season, has generated both interest and concern. While opinion polling plays a legitimate role in democratic processes, the  substance, structure, and timing  of this particular survey raise important questions that merit closer scrutiny. 1. Too Many Convenient Coincidences The timing of the findings seems almost choreographed to match recent political developments. Just days after a controversial choice of running mate by the  Democratic Progressive Party (DPP)  triggered widespread ridicule, that same party is suddenly projected to  lead nationally with 43% , and to command  37% in the North , a region where it has historically struggled outside unusual moments like 2009. The  United Transformation Movement (UTM) , which recently rejected an alliance with the DPP and remained independent, is shown  collapsing to just 5% , despite having sec...

Malawi’s Historic Defamation Ruling: A Test of Responsibility

  By Dr. Greenwell Matchaya, LLB, PhD 17 July 2025   In a major advance for democratic governance and constitutionalism, the High Court of Malawi , sitting as a Constitutional Court , has delivered a landmark ruling striking down Section 200 of the Penal Code , which criminalised defamation. The unanimous judgment , delivered in July 2025 by Justices Chifundo Kachale, Fiona Mwale, and Mzondi Mvula , affirms that the criminalisation of defamation unjustifiably infringes the right to freedom of expression as protected under Section 35 of the Constitution. Importantly, this judgment should not be misread as a dismissal of the importance of dignity and reputation in society. Rather, it is a reaffirmation of constitutional values , chief among them, the right of all citizens to participate in open, informed, and critical public dialogue without fear of criminal sanction. A Legal Milestone: Malawi’s Evolving Defamation Landscape The case was brought by political comme...

Delegates’ voting behaviour: Elusive, but just for Now

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    Greenwell Matchaya, PhD One of the most frustrating things for any investor is being unable to know the possible returns of his/her investment with some level of certainty. Similarly, for a political investor/politician it can be frustrating to devout so much effort in a competition where the voter behaviour is unknown, because doing so would easily lead to wastage of resources or in other words, would limit gains per dollar invested. While voter behaviour is complex and often elusive, when the same or similar voters vote for candidates over a number of times, it is easier to demystify their behaviour. Using known techniques of analysis often taught in elementary statistics, econometrics and mathematics classes, it is possible to study the patterns and derive generalizations or even “theorems” around such behaviour. With advances in machine learning and AI in general, and a good understanding of physiology, sociology, one can torture data or even create some and pr...

Moving the Malawi economy forward: pieces of advice to Excellency Chakwera’s government.

Moving the Malawi economy forward: pieces of advice to Excellency Chakwera’s government. > Greenwell Matchaya, PhD > > Introduction > > Advice given voluntarily and objectively harms no one but can benefit many. On matters of economic development in Malawi, it is now apparent that perhaps owing to the effects flowing from domestic factors as well as external ones including the Covid 19 and Russia Ukraine war crises , economic development in Malawi has conspicuously stagnated over the past few years . > > The President ought to realize that he has risen at a troubling period when Malawi is at the lowest point in history, socially, economically and politically. Our relations with the outside world are not at their best, our relations within the nation are soured by many bad isms including those of a crony , tribal, religious, and comrade nature, and the economy is mauled by absence of radical changes on the supply side, outright theft of public resources and pervasiv...

The New Cabinet is out and it is marvelous ! Yours truly is ...

 1 April 2021 A stable government is key for delivery for any government because uncertainty reduces performance . This is why we should not be reshuffling frequently !  But reshuffles are normal and expected  And so, we are expecting that before the end of this month of April, we will hear someone truly say  " The New Cabinet for the Republic of Neptune is out and it is marvelous !! "   Enjoy April my brothers and sisters Yours truly Mfumusaka 

Tribalism is too bad and laws against it must be enforced when necessary- but the (fake) CHEFOs letter was not tribalistic.

I rarely write on any Malawi matters since the 23rd of June 2020 except formal research pieces etc, but I think it is important to join the voices that seek to outlaw tribalism as sparked by the (fake) letter from the CHEFO. In my view, that letter , whether it is fake or genuine has come as a blessing so we can debate these issues openly and perhaps at length too. Firstly, it is important to note that our democracy is founded on the values of human dignity, the achievement of equality and the advancement of human rights and freedoms. It is also founded on the value of non-racialism and non-sexism, supremacy of the constitution and the rule of law, among others. So, in whatever we do, the key should be to ensure that our actions do not unfairly violate these values. It is thus straightforward to conclude that any conduct that unfairly discriminates a section of the population based on constitutionally listed or non-listed grounds including gender, race, and disability tribe etc is in...